Can Ted Cruz Win with 3rd Place in New Hampshire?

By RUSS J. ALAN

The winner of the New Hampshire Primary on Tuesday, February 9th was Donald Trump with 35% of the vote, and the runner up was the Iowa Caucus eighth place finisher, Ohio’s Governor John Kasich with 16%, followed by Ted Cruz in third place with 12%.

History up until Tuesday night looked like we were headed for a Ted Cruz White House as I demonstrated in my February 4th article, but he needed at least a second place finish in the New Hampshire Primary.

On second thought, maybe we can call Ted Cruz the second place finisher in New Hampshire assuming we can discount John Kasich’s historical record breaking second place finish in New Hampshire after finishing EIGHTH place in Iowa, a feat never before done in history, especially since it is extremely doubtful that he will come anywhere close to that result in any of the remaining primary races.

In 2000, incumbent President Bill Clinton was in his second term when George W. Bush won the Iowa Republican Caucus. In the New Hampshire Republican Primary, Bush was not the winner but came in second place and 10 points behind first place winner John McCain; even still, Bush went on to win the Republican nomination and later, the White House.

In 2008, incumbent President George W. Bush was in his second term when Barack Hussein Obama won the Iowa democrat Caucus. In the New Hampshire democrat Primary, Obama was the runner-up, coming in second place to first place winner Hillary Clinton but went on to win the democrat nomination and finally, the presidency.

History also shows us that no one ever became president after a third place finish in the New Hampshire Primary.

The History:

1976: Jimmy Carter came in 2nd place in the Iowa democrat Caucus, won the New Hampshire democrat Primary and became president.

1980: Ronald Reagan came in second in the Iowa Republican Caucus but won the New Hampshire Republican Primary and became president.

1984: Incumbent President Ronald Reagan was unopposed in the Iowa Republican Caucus and also won in New Hampshire and of course, won his second term.

1988: George H.W. Bush came in third place in Iowa but won the New Hampshire Republican Primary. He went on to win the White House.

1992: Bill Clinton came in fourth place in Iowa then won first place in New Hampshire, and later became president.

1996: Incumbent President Bill Clinton won first pace in both the Iowa democrat Caucus and the New Hampshire democrat Primary, and was re-elected.

2000: With democrat President Bill Clinton serving his second term, the opposing party candidate George W. Bush won first place in Iowa but came in as the runner-up in New Hampshire. He later won the Republican Primary and the General Election.

2004: Incumbent President George W. Bush was unopposed in both the Iowa Republican Caucus and the New Hampshire Republican Primary and was re-elected.

2008: Republican President George W. Bush serving his second term and as history showed, the opposing party candidate who would win the Iowa Caucus and come in at least 2nd place in New Hampshire, in this case New Hampshire first place winner Barack Hussein Obama, won the White House.

2012: Incumbent President Obama was unopposed in both the Iowa democrat Caucus and the New Hampshire democrat Primary and was re-elected.

Instead of a continuation of past Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary history, we have witnessed new history being made right before our eyes. This time, it doesn’t look like it matters we have an incumbent president serving his second term. Things look more similar to 1980, when Ronald Reagan won second place in the Iowa Republican Caucus but won the New Hampshire Republican primary – only this time, the part of Ronald Reagan is being played by Donald Trump.

© Russ J. Alan